Spring 2020

2020 Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Predictions

Guy Carpenter in conjunction with the Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre (GCACIC) at the School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong, has released its 2020 predictions for tropical cyclone formations and landfalls using a regional climate model focusing on East Asia.This model uses information from a global climate prediction model made available in March 2020.

A few highlights from the findings: 

  • The number of tropical cyclone formations predicted for the six month period from April 1 and September 30 is approximately 22.6, which is near the 1977-2018 six-month average of 21.1.
  • Of the 22.6 formations predicted, fewer than 9.4 will make landfall, which is similar to the 1977-2019 average of approximately 9.5.

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